
凯茜·伍德旗下的旗舰交易所交易基金(ETF)已从贸易战恐慌的深渊中强劲反弹,自四月初以来涨幅超过50%。然而,此番反弹非但未能恢复投资者的信心,反而招致了普遍的怀疑。
资金外流持续不断。受看跌信念和战术性对冲驱动,空头正以前所未有的规模大举集结。同时,杠杆型交易所交易基金这类蓬勃发展、对散户友好的产品,正在与伍德押注知名科技股的高信念投资策略展开竞争。
结果便是:曾在疫情期间引领颠覆性科技浪潮的ARK创新ETF,如今虽有业绩表现,却未能提振市场信心。
金融分析公司S3 Partners的数据显示,ARKK的空头仓位已攀升至约37%流通股的创纪录水平——甚至超过了疫情期间的峰值。仅在六月份,看跌交易者就因此承受了超过3亿美元的按市值计价浮亏。而周一该基金4.4%的大涨理论上又令其浮亏账单增加了约9,300万美元。
Strategas高级ETF策略师托德·索恩表示:“伍德的基金确实经历了辉煌的上涨行情,但我怀疑在2020年和2021年蜂拥而入的投资者是否仍对当初的狂热追捧和随后的暴跌心有余悸。”
索恩补充道:“或许他们已将目光转向了加密货币或杠杆型单股基金等其他领域。”
S3 Partners的伊霍尔·杜萨尼夫斯基表示,这种做空行为也反映了机构为对冲其在大盘科技股上的多头头寸而采取的策略,即使这些对冲头寸本身累积了按市值计价的浮亏,该策略仍可持续进行。
随着唐纳德·特朗普收回部分最为极端的贸易提案,加之企业盈利展现出韧性,ARKK所持的特斯拉(Tesla Inc.)、Roblox Corp.和Coinbase Global Inc.等投机性科技股,已与大盘一同从关税波动引发的低点反弹。
尽管押注埃隆·马斯克的电动汽车公司被证明波动剧烈,但作为ARKK的第一大重仓股,特斯拉自四月初以来的表现仍跑赢标普500指数约21个百分点。
尽管如此,怀疑论者依然不为所动。上周四,ARKK录得自2022年以来最大的单日资金流出,使得今年迄今为止的资金流出总额超过8.4亿美元。该基金已连续五周遭遇净赎回。ARKK的发言人未立即回应置评请求。
在彭博行业研究(Bloomberg Intelligence)的阿萨纳西奥斯·普萨罗法吉斯看来,投资者回避该ETF,不仅是因为基金业绩不佳,更在于他们现在可以利用单股ETF构建出表现可能更优的投资组合。
他在一份报告中写道,伍德当初声名鹊起,是因为她让散户投资者得以参与其高信念选股——其中许多股票最初表现极为出色。然而,如今市场上的新型ETF,让投资者比以往任何时候都更容易自行对个股进行集中押注,而无需依赖基金经理。
以单股ETF为例,它们提供对英伟达(Nvidia Corp.)或特斯拉等公司的单股放大敞口。自2022年监管机构批准这种结构以来,此类基金的资产管理规模已增长至近210亿美元。
普萨罗法吉斯写道:“针对ARKK的几乎所有重仓股,市场上已有或正在推出杠杆型和反向ETF,投资者无需主动管理即可复制或增强其投资策略。随着此类产品激增,像ARKK这样的旗舰主题型ETF面临被淘汰的风险,因为投资者正选择直接投资标的。”
这突显出投资者对新上市股票两倍乃至三倍总回报的渴求。ETF发行商们正竞相提交计划,拟推出为Circle Internet Group Inc.等新上市公司提供杠杆敞口的基金。
除了竞争加剧,长期表现不佳也是空头如此坚定地做空伍德的原因之一。尽管该基金在过去几个月有所反弹,但其过去五年的回报率基本为零,而同期标普500指数的总回报率超过了100%。(财富中文网)
译者:刘进龙
审校:汪皓
凯茜·伍德旗下的旗舰交易所交易基金(ETF)已从贸易战恐慌的深渊中强劲反弹,自四月初以来涨幅超过50%。然而,此番反弹非但未能恢复投资者的信心,反而招致了普遍的怀疑。
资金外流持续不断。受看跌信念和战术性对冲驱动,空头正以前所未有的规模大举集结。同时,杠杆型交易所交易基金这类蓬勃发展、对散户友好的产品,正在与伍德押注知名科技股的高信念投资策略展开竞争。
结果便是:曾在疫情期间引领颠覆性科技浪潮的ARK创新ETF,如今虽有业绩表现,却未能提振市场信心。
金融分析公司S3 Partners的数据显示,ARKK的空头仓位已攀升至约37%流通股的创纪录水平——甚至超过了疫情期间的峰值。仅在六月份,看跌交易者就因此承受了超过3亿美元的按市值计价浮亏。而周一该基金4.4%的大涨理论上又令其浮亏账单增加了约9,300万美元。
Strategas高级ETF策略师托德·索恩表示:“伍德的基金确实经历了辉煌的上涨行情,但我怀疑在2020年和2021年蜂拥而入的投资者是否仍对当初的狂热追捧和随后的暴跌心有余悸。”
索恩补充道:“或许他们已将目光转向了加密货币或杠杆型单股基金等其他领域。”
S3 Partners的伊霍尔·杜萨尼夫斯基表示,这种做空行为也反映了机构为对冲其在大盘科技股上的多头头寸而采取的策略,即使这些对冲头寸本身累积了按市值计价的浮亏,该策略仍可持续进行。
随着唐纳德·特朗普收回部分最为极端的贸易提案,加之企业盈利展现出韧性,ARKK所持的特斯拉(Tesla Inc.)、Roblox Corp.和Coinbase Global Inc.等投机性科技股,已与大盘一同从关税波动引发的低点反弹。
尽管押注埃隆·马斯克的电动汽车公司被证明波动剧烈,但作为ARKK的第一大重仓股,特斯拉自四月初以来的表现仍跑赢标普500指数约21个百分点。
尽管如此,怀疑论者依然不为所动。上周四,ARKK录得自2022年以来最大的单日资金流出,使得今年迄今为止的资金流出总额超过8.4亿美元。该基金已连续五周遭遇净赎回。ARKK的发言人未立即回应置评请求。
在彭博行业研究(Bloomberg Intelligence)的阿萨纳西奥斯·普萨罗法吉斯看来,投资者回避该ETF,不仅是因为基金业绩不佳,更在于他们现在可以利用单股ETF构建出表现可能更优的投资组合。
他在一份报告中写道,伍德当初声名鹊起,是因为她让散户投资者得以参与其高信念选股——其中许多股票最初表现极为出色。然而,如今市场上的新型ETF,让投资者比以往任何时候都更容易自行对个股进行集中押注,而无需依赖基金经理。
以单股ETF为例,它们提供对英伟达(Nvidia Corp.)或特斯拉等公司的单股放大敞口。自2022年监管机构批准这种结构以来,此类基金的资产管理规模已增长至近210亿美元。
普萨罗法吉斯写道:“针对ARKK的几乎所有重仓股,市场上已有或正在推出杠杆型和反向ETF,投资者无需主动管理即可复制或增强其投资策略。随着此类产品激增,像ARKK这样的旗舰主题型ETF面临被淘汰的风险,因为投资者正选择直接投资标的。”
这突显出投资者对新上市股票两倍乃至三倍总回报的渴求。ETF发行商们正竞相提交计划,拟推出为Circle Internet Group Inc.等新上市公司提供杠杆敞口的基金。
除了竞争加剧,长期表现不佳也是空头如此坚定地做空伍德的原因之一。尽管该基金在过去几个月有所反弹,但其过去五年的回报率基本为零,而同期标普500指数的总回报率超过了100%。(财富中文网)
译者:刘进龙
审校:汪皓
Cathie Wood’s flagship ETF has staged a powerful comeback from the depths of the trade war panic, rallying more than 50% since early April. But rather than restoring investor faith, the rebound has only been met with skepticism.
Outflows are persistent. Short sellers are circling in record numbers, driven by bearish conviction and tactical hedging. And a booming class of retail-friendly products — leveraged exchange-traded funds — are competing with Wood’s strategy of making high-conviction bets on famous tech names.
The result: the ARK Innovation ETF, which helped define the disruptive tech story during the pandemic, is delivering performance without inspiring confidence.
According to data from financial analytics firm S3 Partners, short interest in ARKK has climbed to a record of roughly 37% of free float — surpassing even pandemic-era peaks. In June alone, bearish traders would have incurred over $300 million in mark-to-market losses. Monday’s 4.4% surge in theory added another roughly $93 million to the tab.
Wood’s “funds have gone on great runs, but I wonder if investors who piled in during 2020 and 2021 are still feeling the effects of that rush and decline,” said Todd Sohn, senior ETF strategist at Strategas.
“Perhaps they’ve moved on to other areas like crypto or levered single stock funds too,” Sohn added.
The short-selling also reflects firms offsetting long bets in large-cap technology names, a strategy that can endure even as those positions rack up mark-to-market losses, according to Ihor Dusaniwsky of S3 Partners.
ARKK’s speculative tech holdings like Tesla Inc., Roblox Corp., and Coinbase Global Inc. have rebounded from tariff-volatility induced lows alongside the broader stock market as President Donald Trump has walked back some of his most extreme trade proposals and corporate earnings have been resilient.
While bets on Elon Musk’s electric-vehicle company have proved volatile, the company, which is ARKK’s top holding, has outperformed the S&P 500 Index by about 21 percentage points from early April.
Still, the doubters haven’t budged. On Thursday, ARKK recorded its largest single-day outflow since 2022, contributing to over $840 million in outflows so far this year. It has seen net redemptions for five consecutive weeks. A spokesperson for ARKK did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
To Bloomberg Intelligence’s Athanasios Psarofagis, it’s not just the fund’s poor performance that has investors shunning the ETF, it’s that they can now build arguably better-performing portfolios with single-stock ETFs.
While Wood rose to fame because she offered retail investors access to her high-conviction stock picks — many of which initially fared extremely well — new ETFs on the market are making it easier than ever for investors to place their own concentrated bets on stocks, without relying on managers, he writes in a note.
Take single-stock ETFs, which offer amped up exposure to a single company like Nvidia Corp. or Tesla. Such funds have grown to command nearly $21 billion in assets since regulators green lit the structure in 2022.
“With leveraged and inverse ETFs available or in the pipeline for almost all of ARKK’s top holdings, investors can replicate or enhance the strategy sans active management,” Psarofagis writes. “As these products proliferate, flagship thematic ETFs like ARKK risk becoming obsolete, as investors go straight to the source.”
Underscoring how investors are hungry for double or triple the total return of newly traded stocks, ETF issuers have raced to file plans for funds that would provide leveraged exposure to newly public company Circle Internet Group Inc.
Aside from more competition, poor longer-term performance also helps explain why short sellers have been so steadfast in betting against Wood. While the fund has rallied over the last few months, it has returned essentially zero over the last five years, compared to the S&P 500’s more than 100% total return.